An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period

This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made. This research was undertaken with support from the European Community's Phare ACE Programmes 1997 and from the ESRC through its macro-programme grant to NIESR. The authors are grateful for the funding. The content of the publication is the sole responsibility of the authors and it in no way represents the views of the Commission or the ESRC.